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Tata Power Ltd (updated - 12 Feb 2010)
Lower power generation and realisations saw Tata Power’s net sales in the December 2009 quarter dip 12 per cent year-onyear to Rs 1,528 crore. Operating income and net profits, however, surged 42 per cent and 28 per cent to Rs 364 crore and Rs 148 crore, respectively.

The dip in realisations can be attributed to passing of lower fuel costs to consumers, while the closure of two units in Trombay meant that power generation was flat in spite of 500 Mw of capacity added in 2009. Fuel costs per unit of electricity generated declined from Rs 3.31 in the December 2008 quarter to Rs 2.46 for the latest quarter.

A change in fuel mix in favour of gas led to a 26 per cent saving in fuel costs. This was partly passed to consumers resulting in realisations falling 12 per cent yearon-year to Rs 4.1 a unit in the quarter from Rs 4.7 in the year ago period. Average tariffs for merchant sales also dropped to Rs 5.37-6.21 from Rs 5.5-6.5 in previous quarters, according to analysts. Operationally, generation and sales remained flat. Overall, Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization margins expanded 9.5 percentage points y-o-y to 26.8 per cent (led by savings in fuel costs), though they were lower by 265 basis points sequentially.

The company is on track to nearly double its generation capacity to 5,800 Mw by end of 2011-12. Most projects are on schedule with the Maithon plant scheduled for commissioning in 2010-11 and Mundra UMPP scheduled for 2011-12. The company has received approval for its mining plan in Mandakini coal block with most formalities already been completed. Coal production is expected to start from July 2011 according to analysts. The Tubed block mining proposal has also been approved and submitted to the state government. Production is targeted from February 2012.

Tata Power is seen as a quasi-coal play given its acquisition of stake in two Indonesian coal mines of Bumi group. Bumi mined 29.3 million tonnes at an average cost of $60 per tonne in the first half of 2009-10. Coal prices have firmed by 11 per cent to about $90 per tonne since November 2009, analysts say.

Consolidated numbers due later this month will therefore be an interesting watch. Another positive is afreeing up of about 500 Mw that was earlier supplied to Reliance Infra in Mumbai. About 200 Mw will be available for merchant trading and the rest will be sold on regulated basis from April 2010.

The stock has largely performed in line with the BSE Sensex since the beginning of 2010. It ended yesterday at Rs 1,265, down by Rs 10 over Wednesday’s closing, and trades at 15.4 times consensus analyst 2010-11 EPS estimates. Analysts value the stock at Rs 1,500 on sum-ofthe-parts basis which includes the company’s investments in Bumi (coal mines) and telecom among others, indicating that there is room for upside.
source - BS

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